2023 NBA Draft Lottery Odds: Pistons, Spurs, Rockets Have Best Chance on Victor Wembanyama; see full list

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By Webdesk



The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery is scheduled for Tuesday night, and fans are close to finding out who will win the right to draft French sensation Victor Wembanyama with the No. 1 overall pick in June. The Pistons, Spurs and Rockets all have a 14% chance of landing the top pick, the best odds of any team, but 14 non-playoff teams hope the ping pong balls bounce their way on Tuesday in Chicago.

Wembanyama has been touted as the most talented potential No. 1 overall pick since LeBron James. The 19-year-old, 7-foot-2 Frenchman plays for the Metropolitans 92 in the top professional men’s league in France. Other intriguing prospects in this year’s draft include G League Ignite standout Scoot Henderson and Alabama freshman Brandon Miller.

But before we head into the 2023 NBA Draft, which will take place on June 22 following the close of the NBA Finals, let’s get down to some key details about Tuesday’s lottery. If you haven’t been keeping up with how the NBA has changed the draft lottery, or if you just forgot, here’s a little refresher before the lottery takes place on May 16.

When is the draft lottery?

The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on Tuesday, May 16 prior to Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. It airs at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN and streams on fubo (try it for free).

How does the lottery work?

Until four years ago, the team with the worst record automatically claimed the No. 1 spot in the upcoming lottery. It would encourage teams that weren’t going anywhere fast to rack up as many losses as possible in hopes of securing that top spot on the draft board. Prior to the change, the team with the worst record had a 25% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, followed by a 19.9% ​​chance for the second worst team and a 15.6% chance for the third-worst team. However, in 2019, the league decided to level off the odds in hopes of discouraging tanking and creating a little more excitement around the lottery.

Now, instead of one team working its way to the top of the lottery, the three teams with the worst records all have a 14% chance of getting the No. 1 pick. The team with the worst record is also guaranteed a top-five pick. But just because those three teams have the inside track of getting the top pick doesn’t mean they’ll get it. Five teams with the worst records all have at least a 10% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick. Nine of the 14 lottery teams also have at least a 20% chance of landing in the Top 4 of the lottery, which can cause chaos.

In the first year of the league’s new lottery system, the New Orleans Pelicans, who went into the night with the seventh-best chances of making the first pick, jumped all the way to the No. 1 spot. They passed the three teams that had a 14% chance of getting it, a shocking development that led to New Orleans drafting heralded prospect, and now two-time All-Star, Zion Williamson. That year’s draft lottery was proof that anything can really happen, regardless of the odds.

What is the lottery selection process?

Here’s where it gets a bit more technical. Ping pong balls numbered 1-14 are placed in a machine, symbolizing the 14 lottery teams. Within those 14 balls, there is a possibility of 1,001 combinations of four numbers. Those combinations are then split among the 14 lottery teams. To determine the number 1 pick, individual ping pong balls are selected to create a four-digit combination. The team that matches the chosen combination will then be awarded the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. That same process is then done again to determine the second through fourth choices.

Once that process is complete to determine the draft’s top four picks, the remaining order (positions 5-14) will be set in reverse order of their record for the 2022-23 regular season. In other words, the teams with the worst remaining records pick higher than those that finished with better records.

What are the odds for the design lottery?

The Pistons finished with the NBA’s worst record (by five games) in 2022-23, and Detroit, Houston and San Antonio all have a 14% chance of making the No. 1 roster.

Detroit pistons

17-65

.207

52.1%

14.0%

Houston missiles

22-60

.268

52.1%

14.0%

san antonio traces

22-60

.268

52.1%

14.0%

Charlotte Horners

27-55

.329

48.0%

12.5%

Portland trailblazers

33-49

.402

42.1%

10.5%

Orlando magic

34-48

.415

37.2%

9.0%

Indiana Pacer

35-47

.427

29.4%

6.8%

Washington wizards

35-47

.427

30.0%

6.7%

Utah Jazz

37-45

.451

20.3%

4.5%

Dallas Mavericks

38-44

.463

13.9%

3.0%

Chicago Bulls

40-42

.488

8.5%

1.8%

The thunder of Oklahoma City

40-42

.488

8.0%

1.7%

Toronto Birds of Prey

41-41

.500

4.8%

1.0%

New Orleans pelicans

42-40

.512

2.4%

0.5%

Are you hoping your team has some lottery luck on Tuesday? CBS Sports’ Sam Quinn took a deep dive in lottery history to see which teams are most (and least) lucky in the selection process.





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