NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to bet on – it’s an all-season gamble with intensity from week to week because of how much each game matters to the final season record. I’ve been writing down the earnings totals for CBS for years, so it’s crazy to me that we’re getting them now in the middle to late March; we always had to fight our way through May to get them released.
Caesar’s Sports Book dropped the win totals for every NFL team recently, so let’s break them down by division. View the other formats here:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Before we dive into the NFC East, a few quick notes. First, we pick every team, but we don’t bet on every team. Two, the best bets are in bold, etc. Three, if you like a fairly high left, don’t bet it now, because injuries are random. Four, I’m picking this one from March 30, so I’ll be leaning more Unders based on injuries.
Let’s get down to business.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
More than 10.5 (-130) / less than 10.5 (+110)
Not to elaborate on a point I’ve made several times (or at least will make over the course of the NFC; check all the links above for each division’s total win bets as they play out), but it’s dangerous to this kind of large numbers to bet a About this early in the off season. The Eagles are a really good team and probably win more than 11 games most of the time. But there is a long road between now and the start of the season. Would I prefer Greater than 10.5 (-130) to Greater than 11.5 (+110)? Probably. I’m just not sure it will get there. Bringing back Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson and Brandon Graham was huge; the re-signing of Darius Slay and James Bradberry was also huge after it looked like we would see an exodus of talent in secondary. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is a huge loss, but it looked a lot worse in the beginning. The brain drain of a Super Bowl run is real: losing both of your coordinators is no joke. Rashaad Penny’s fourteen+ games might lead the league in haste, but Miles Sanders was hugely reliable last year. There’s also now tape about Jalen Hurts’ breakout season. I’m not negative about Philly, this is just a huge number for a team with a first place schedule and a target this early in the off-season. I wouldn’t bet on this at this point anyway unless you have a STRONG belief about the jacked up price at Philly’s over.
Choose: Eagles UNDER 10.5 (+110)
Dallas cowboys
More than 9.5 (-150) / less than 9.5 (+130)
America’s Team always outperforms in the betting market. Aggressively priced with that -150 sticker, Dallas is a bit of a mystery considering the coordinator is switching from Kellen Moore to Brian Schottenheimer. The latter is a #friendofthepod, great guy and a fan of running the football, which Mike McCarthy has promised will happen more often. The only problem here isn’t a lack of Ezekiel Elliott, because that’s a plus. It’s about Tony Pollard’s health and the primary backup is Ronald Jones. The Cowboys receiver corps is solid and Dak Prescott is a high end quarterback. What are we doing here? The selection generally looks good, honestly. Dan Quinn is a stud DC and just hangs around, waiting for the best possible next job (very smart of him, by the way). I think I may have watched a bunch of Under here, but I’m starting to think the Over is pretty damn solid after Mike McCarthy went 12-5 the past two seasons despite us complaining about almost everything he did along the way. I’m not betting on -150 right now, but it will probably go up to 10.5 before the start of the season.
Choose: Cowboys OVER 9.5 (-150)
New York giants
More than 8.5 (+125) / less than 8.5 (-145)
This might be my favorite bet in the whole NFC? Sure, the Giants probably batted a little above their weight for most of last season, but their success wasn’t a fluke driven by luck… I don’t think so. They established themselves as an 8.3-win team and found their way to nine wins, finishing 8-4-1 in one-score games…so there’s some concern. But I think of this team as the Buffalo Bills of 2017 — the drastic coaching improvement led to their surprising success. Daniel Jones may come up with question marks for many people, but what if 2022 is his baseline and he only improves in his second year with Brian Daboll at the helm? If so, this contract may seem like a bargain. They brought back Saquon Barkley, they added Darren Waller, a pass catcher could wait in the draft… there’s cause for optimism with this offense. Continuity is at a recent high for this franchise on both sides of the ball and they get the AFC South and NFC North as crossover divisions. This number is too low!
Choose: Giants OVER 8.5 +125
Washington commanders
More than 7.5 (+150) / less than 7.5 (-175)
Last year, the Commanders traded for Carson Wentz, paired him with Taylor Heinecke, weren’t very good on defense for half the season, and still managed to go 8-8-1. The loss of Scott Turner as offensive coordinator stings, I think, and is unfair in the wake of the Wentz thing. Eric Bienemy has a chance to prove he deserves a head coaching job after being turned down in Kansas City (it feels a little TOO good to be true that he’d leave Patrick Mahomes for Sam Howell after winning his second Super Bowl ring, but I digress). There’s some concern about the whole “selling team amid scandals” thing with Dan Snyder, but you get $1.50 for Ron Rivera to go better than .500 with a decent schedule. If you don’t believe in Sam Howell at all, so be it. But I’ve seen that guy play a lot of football and he’s not a fifth round pick. This is arguably the best PRICE of any division bet currently available.
Choice: Commanders OVER 7.5 (+150)