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All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Bucks at Heat, 7:30pm | Television: TNT
- Main trends: Giannis played only 11 minutes in the series.
- The pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo under 42.5 points, assists and rebounds (-111)
Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to return tonight as his team sits in a 2-1 hole in the first round of the playoffs. But is he healthy? Not just healthy enough to play, but healthy enough to be effective?
Giannis suffered a lower back contusion in Game 1, left the game and has not played since. While part of me wonders if Milwaukee had hoped it could “play it safe” and get by without him, it’s hard to put much stock in that. Sure, winning Game 2 may have given them the confidence that they could do it again without him in Game 3, but is that a risk you’re willing to take?
It is more likely that the back injury was more serious than Milwaukee first let on and affected Giannis’ ability to play at a high level. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slightly smaller Giannis tonight. One who could potentially avoid contact that could aggravate his back injury. So maybe he’s not going to the basket as hard for a layup or fighting for a rebound. Perhaps he’s taking on a more distracting role, someone Miami should reckon with as he drives Giannis Antetokounmpo crazy and clears space for the rest of the Bucks.
Or maybe Giannis is aggravating the injury and playing limited minutes ago. There are many reasons to be skeptical about him surpassing this gag.
Here’s what SportsLine says about the game: If you’d rather bet the game than a player, SportsLine’s projection model has a B score on the aggregate, but doesn’t see much value on the spread or moneyline.
💰 The choices
SATISFACTION
🏀NBA
Grizzlies at Lakers, 10 p.m. | Television: TNT
The pick: D’Angelo Russell over 25.5 points, assists and rebounds (-111) — Here’s a fun fact you may not have realized about the Lakers during the first three games of this series: D’Angelo Russell has the highest net score of anyone on the team in the series. He stands at +15.6, which is higher than Anthony Davis (+13.4), Austin Reaves (+8.9) and LeBron James (-7.1!). While his raw stats didn’t back it up due to a poor performance in Game 2, the Lakers were a much better team with Russell on the floor.
As is the case with many role players, Russell has been better for the Lakers all season at home than on the road. Its usage increases and its efficiency improves at both ends of the track. He looks poised for an important game tonight against a Memphis team that has been defensively worse all season. Memphis’ desperation tonight will likely lead them to focus on LeBron and AD, forcing others to beat them. Russell seems ready for a big night.
⚾MLB
White Sox at Blue Jays, 19:07 | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Lance Lynn Over 5.5 Strikes (-146) — Coming fresh to Toronto swept by the Rays, the White Sox find themselves in the middle of a disappointing start to the season. Lance Lynn played a part in that bad start. He has a 7.59 ERA from four starts and gets beaten up by opponents. Though Lynn has had a hard time allowing contact, he misses bats and strikes out at a rapid pace.
Those four starts put his strikeout percentage of 27.5% higher than last year, and it was in the same spot in 2021 when he went 11-6 with a 2.69 ERA for the White Sox. He’s also had a lot of success against the Toronto hitters he’ll face tonight, with a 28.9% strikeout percentage against them. Lynn has lasted six full innings in just one of his four starts, but strikes out at least five in each start, averaging 7.0 per appearance.
🔒 SportsLine pick of the day: The projection model has an A grade for a play in tonight’s crucial Game 4 between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs.