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The 2023 NBA Finals will switch venues, starting with Game 3 on Wednesday night. The Miami Heat hosts the Denver Nuggets at Kaseya Center after the first two games were held at Ball Arena in Denver. Miami and Denver are tied at 1-1 after the Heat pulled off a memorable comeback win in Game 2 on Sunday. The Heat drove a 36-point fourth quarter to a 111-108 win, claiming home field advantage in the process.
Tipoff is in Miami at 8:30 PM ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Denver as the 2.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or the total number of points Vegas believes to score, is 214.5 in the latest Heat vs. Nuggets odds. See what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say before you decide on Nuggets vs. Record heat picks and NBA predictions.
The SportsLine projection model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has generated more than $10,000 in winnings for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four seasons. The model entered the 2023 NBA Finals this season with a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks, netting nearly $2,900. Anyone who follows it has seen huge returns.
Now the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Nuggets and his picks and NBA Finals predictions recorded. You can now go to SportsLine to see the model choices. Here are several NBA bets and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Nuggets Spread: Nuggets -2.5
- Heat vs. Nuggets over/under: 214.5 points
- Heat vs. Nuggets moneyline: Nuggets -145, Heat +122
- Denver: The Nuggets are 23-25 against the spread in road games
- Miami: The Heat is 21-28-2 against the spread in home games
- Heat vs. Nuggets picks: See picks on SportsLine
Recommended game | Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
Why the Nuggets can cover
Denver is led by the best player in the series with Nikola Jokic. Jokic scored 41 points in Game 2, the most points by a center in an NBA Finals game since 2001. He averages 30.4 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.1 assists per game in the postseason, marking becomes the first player in NBA history to average a triple. double in 17 postseason games and most triple-doubles ever in a single playoff run. He also finished No. 2 in the NBA MVP race during the regular season, finishing in the top three in the league in rebounds and assists, while leading the NBA with a true shooting percentage of 70.1%.
The Nuggets outscored opponents by 12.5 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the field during the regular season, and Denver also has a legitimate No. 2 star with Jamal Murray. He averages 27.0 points and 6.6 assists per game during the playoffs, and Denver has the best offense of any postseason team. The Nuggets lead the league in offensive rating, turnover rate, true shooting percentage and paint points during the 2023 NBA playoffs. See which team to pick here.
Why the heat can cover
Miami’s resilience has been on display throughout the postseason. The Heat has 10 wins as the underdog for playoff betting, the most of any team in the NBA in the past 30 postseasons. Miami also has seven comeback wins trailing at least 12 points, more than any team in a single postseason in the play-by-play era. Game 2 was a primary example of that phenomenon, with the Heat scoring 36 points in the fourth quarter and playing almost flawless basketball over the stretch. Miami scored 1.29 points per possession in Game 2, tying an NBA Finals record with six different players making at least two 3-pointers.
The Heat converted 17 of 35 attempts from 3-point range in the game, and Miami produced 28 assists and just 11 turnovers en route to victory. Miami averages 24.1 assists and just 12.1 turnovers per game in the playoffs, and the Heat are hard to beat when they’re hot from 3-point range. Miami shoots 39.2% from 3-point distance in the playoffs, including more than 46% in nine wins over the Bucks, Celtics and Nuggets. See which team to choose here.
How to make Nuggets vs Heat picks
The SportsLine model leans forward on the total and projects 223 combined points. The model also says that one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see the model’s NBA playoff picks on SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread you have to jump, all of the model that is 72-38 on the top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
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