If the Warriors win tonight, Draymond Green will be a big reason why, plus other Friday best bets

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All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Kings at Warriors, 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN

• Main trends: Draymond Green averages 25.5 PAR per game in the series.
• The pick: Draymond Green over 23.5 points, assists and rebounds (-109)

The discourse never ends when it comes to Draymond Green, because Draymond Green is determined to keep it that way. No matter what, he always finds a way to inject himself into the middle of a situation. It works for him. It’s who he is.

However, what is being lost is that while he may not be the player he was five or six years ago, Green is still a solid player and an integral part of what the Warriors do. It’s hard to argue that they aren’t better with him than without him because he does a lot of those “little things” that your coaches always rave about.

He’s also done more of the big stuff since returning from suspension. After missing Game 3 of this series for punching Sacramento’s Domantas Sabonis in the chest, Green has averaged 16.5 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists in the last two games. Even in the first two games, when he only scored 12 points, Green had a combined 29 rebounds and assists.

He fills in the statistics sheet. While he won’t score another 21 points tonight, he will continue to facilitate the attack and crash the boards. No one in Golden State wants to go back to Sacramento for a Game 7. The Warriors will do everything they can to end the series tonight, including Green doing everything he can. Even if it means stomping someone on the chest again.

Here’s what SportsLine says about the game: The projection model is leaning down tonight, but there’s no shortage of plays thanks to SportsLine’s handicappers.

💰 The choices

🏀NBA

Grizzlies at Lakers, 10:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN

Last Chances:

Memphis grizzly bears +5

The choice: grizzly bears +5 (-110) — Don’t you think it’s too convenient to believe the idea that the Lakers suddenly figured it out? Memphis defeated the Lakers by 17 points in Game 5 to extend the series – a Memphis team that finished the regular season with the second-best record in the West despite going 20 games without Ja Morant.

Meanwhile, this is still the same Lakers team that needed the play-in to qualify, right? The same Lakers team that is just 33-44 ATS favorite since the start of last season? My point is, the longer this series goes on, the worse the Lakers will get. Dillon Brooks poked the wrong bear, but he wasn’t wrong that the bear was old. This will be the 14th game in a row that LeBron James has played, something he is not used to! The Lakers may wrap this up tonight, but I don’t see the Grizzlies making it easy.

⚾MLB

Diamondbacks at Rockies, 20:40 | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 Strikes (-135) — Fame breeds disdain, and Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has a lot of familiarity with Colorado Rockies batters. And I bet he doesn’t like them very much

Kelly is not a high strikeout pitcher. His 22.1% pass rate since last season is just below average for an MLB starter at the time. However, he has been well below average against this Rockies team. Current Rockies hitters have a combined 135 at bats against Kelly and a strikeout percentage of just 14.1%. So when you combine that history with Colorado’s thin air, there’s a very real chance Kelly won’t stay long enough tonight to get that fifth strikeout.

⚽ Football

Roma vs. AC Milan, Saturday, 12 noon | TV: Paramount+
The choice: Roma (+175) — While Napoli could take Serie A this weekend, the race for the other three Champions League places is still very interesting, especially now that Juventus’ 15-point penalty has been revoked (for now, at least). At the start of the weekend, Roma and AC Milan are tied for fourth place with 56 points and a goal difference of +14. This match is rather important for both of them!

They are also in similar situations: AC Milan remains in the Champions League, while Roma are in the Europa League. Both clubs have to navigate the choppy waters to succeed in one league without hurting their chances in the other, and it’s not easy.

However, looking at this game, I think that Roma does not get anywhere near enough respect in the market. Like most teams, Milan have been much better at home than outside. It has an expected goal difference (xGD) of +0.67 at home compared to +0.27 on the road. Specifically, Milan has a goal difference of +13 at home to +1 at home and scores just 1.31 goals per game on the road versus 2.00 at home. More pertinently, Milan have only won two of their last nine games away from San Siro (not counting the 1-0 “away” loss to Inter). It was outscored 17-11 in those games, including Milan’s 4-0 win at Napoli. Meanwhile, Roma have won 11 of their last 13 at home.

Liverpool vs. Tottenham Hotspur, Sunday, 11:30am | TV: US
The choice: Liverpool (-200) — Another match where the splits between home and away make things a little too obvious. Before I get into that, though, I want to make it clear that I’m not worried about any positive feelings from Tottenham coming back from a 2-0 deficit to draw against Manchester United during the week. While it was nice to see signs of life, one half is not denying the club’s problems. The xGD per home game this season is +0.57. On the road, where it will be this week, it is -0.25 per game.

Guess what? Liverpool are a completely different team at home. The xGD per game is +1.19 at Anfield compared to -0.15 everywhere else. More importantly, Liverpool are finally starting to look decent again. Sure, the last three games were against Leeds United, Nottingham Forest and West Ham, but it won all three convincingly. Moreover, the 2-2 draw against Arsenal earlier this month was misleading. Using xG, Liverpool “outscored” Arsenal 3.9-1.4 in that match. Liverpool can pass Tottenham in the table and climb into the Europa League spots with a win here. That may not have been the goal at the start of the season, but it’s all Liverpool have to play for at the moment and I expect they will put their best foot forward to achieve that.

🔒 SportsLine pick of the day: The projection model says they’re handing out free money tonight in Chicago.