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All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Warriors at Lakers, 10 p.m. | Television: TNT
- Main trends: Klay scored at least 22 in five of his last seven games.
- The Pick: Klay Thompson over 21.5 points (-106)
Much has been made about the ups and downs nature of Anthony Davis’ performance in the postseason, and I considered taking the under 41.5 PAR on The Brow tonight. But it’s too obvious a game, and I don’t see much value in the line where it’s at.
I see a lot of value in Klay Thompson’s point total. He shot just 42.6% overall and 38.3% from three in the first three games against the Kings, averaging 18.3 points per game. Those are good numbers for almost everyone in the league, but below average for Klay. He also shot only two free throws in the first three games.
Since then things have changed. While he’s had some poor three-point shooting games (going 4-for-19 in Games 6 and 7 vs. Sacramento), overall he’s been a much more reliable scorer. The biggest difference is reaching the line as he has averaged three free throw attempts per game while shooting 40% of three. That caused his scoring average to rise to 22.7 points per game.
What gives me even more confidence is that he averages that 22.7 points, despite a 15-point performance in Game 3. One in which Klay went a terrible 5-for-14 from the field and almost knocked him out part of the fourth saw round. quarter with the Lakers winning by 30. Thompson has made no secret of how important this series is to him. He wants to leave a mark. I expect him to make one tonight. I’ll take the over 21.5 points here, but I’ll sprinkle a little on an alternate total where Klay also scores at least 30.
Here’s what SportsLine says about the game: The projection model doesn’t like much here, but the SportsLine handicappers have shared a few of their favorite props for tonight.
💰 The choices
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🏀NBA
Knicks at Heat, 7:30pm | Television: TNT
The Pick: RJ Barrett over 2.5 assists (-145) — I was very tempted to take the upper hand in this game. Maybe still, but I’m not making it my official game. My gut tells me it’s too low, and after the slop party that was the last game, I expect we’ll see a course correction.
However, the fact that the Knicks are without Immanuel Quickley raises some concerns about their second unit’s offensive ceiling.
Instead, we’ll focus on a prop from RJ Barrett. He had 10 assists in the first two games before finishing with just one in Game 3. Since the Knicks only made 31 field goals as a team in the entire game, I don’t know it was Barrett’s lack of facilitation as much as New York’s lack to shot making. Also with Quickley out, Barrett was able to see more minutes than usual and also have more control of the ball.
⚽ Champions League
Real Madrid vs. Manchester City, Tuesday, 3pm | TV: CBS
The Choice: Over 2.5 (-135) — It’s somewhat difficult to figure out how much signal is in the noise as Real Madrid have nothing important to play for in La Liga, but the team’s defense has been a mess lately. Yes, Madrid won the Copa del Rey last week with a 2-1 win over Osasuna, but before that it had lost two out of three in league games, and its only win was a 4-2 win over 14th-placed Almeria. Madrid allowed eight goals in those three games at an xG of 5.5. On the one hand, you could say they were a bit unlucky. On the other hand, what the hell is Real Madrid doing by allowing 5.5 xG in three matches against Girona, Almeria and Real Sociedad?
Can Madrid also just turn the knob for Manchester City? We are talking about the team that is arguably the best in the world. How sharp can we reasonably expect Madrid to be in this spot?
I don’t think they will be at their best, but I wouldn’t bet on Manchester City winning. City are currently rolling and should win, but Real Madrid is Real Madrid and this is the Champions League. They got bigger rabbits out of smaller hats. Instead, the better is game over. Man City’s attack is relentless and my concerns about Madrid’s defense are justified. But if one team can find the back of the net against this Man City side and take control of the game, it’s Real Madrid. I expect the Madrid looks to go deep and counter-attack early, but Man City take the lead and get them to open up. Then it gets wild.
AC Milan vs. Inter Milan, Wednesday, 3pm | TV: CBS
The choice: Inter Milan (+145) — Timing is everything in life. In the quarter-finals, AC Milan came up against a side from Napoli who had been the talk of European football all season. But Milan hit it at the right time as Napoli faced injuries and suspensions of key players, the most notable being Victor Osimhen. Milan took advantage and eliminated Napoli from the competition. Now timing is no longer on their side.
Milan’s Rafael Leao suffered a groin injury in Milan’s match against Lazio this weekend, and reports are not optimistic that he will be available to play in this match. That’s a serious blow to Milan, as Leao is tied with Olivier Giroud for the team’s lead in goals this season with 13. He’s the most dangerous threat Milan have, and if he doesn’t play they become much easier to defend.
Complicating the timing even more for Milan is that the Inter team they face without him is playing better than they have all season. Inter have won five consecutive opponents 15-1. So are wins over Juventus, Lazio and Roma, so it’s not like Inter are beating the bottom of Serie A. Defensively, Inter have not allowed more than 0.9 xG in any of their last seven games. Inter has also won two of its three games against AC Milan this year, both of which were shutouts. Everything screams Inter this week.
🔒 SportsLine pick of the day: The advanced computer model includes the Athletics-Yankees game in parlay that would go over 7-1.