The Dallas Mavericks have seemingly decided to prioritize their pick in the first round of the 2023 NBA Draft over chasing a spot in the Play-In Tournament. The Mavericks faced a must-win game against the Chicago Bulls on Friday night to keep their playoff hopes alive. They rested Kyrie Irving, Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Green and Maxi Kleber, while Luka Doncic only played the first quarter.
Dallas went into a half game behind the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday for the final spot in the Play-In Tournament, but without the tiebreaker between the two teams. As a result, the Mavericks have to win both of their last two games and the Thunder have to lose their last game to get to No. 10.
That seems achievable considering they play the Bulls and San Antonio Spurs, while the Thunder play the Grizzlies. It also seems that a team that gave up Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith and a prospective first-round pick for Kyrie Irving a few months ago is looking to get into the playoffs by any means necessary.
Most years they would, but the Mavericks are in a unique place. They owe the Knicks a first-round pick via the Kristaps Porzingis trade, and the roster is top-10 protected. If the Mavericks made it to the Play-In Tournament, they would automatically relinquish the pick because they would not enter the lottery. Even if they were eliminated from the Play-In, their chance of keeping the pick would be slim, and their best chance is to miss out altogether.
There’s another tier to consider: The Mavs tied with the Bulls on Friday for the 10th worst record in the league. The 10th worst record has a 77.5% chance of picking a top-10 in the lottery, while the 11th worst record has only an 11.6% chance of doing so. So it’s not enough just to miss the Play-In; they have to lose to the Bulls in the process. Hence the personnel decisions they made on Friday.
Whatever happens to the Mavericks’ choice, this is a shocking end to their season and will spark a lot of discussion about tanking, especially given the impact it will have on other franchises, namely the Knicks.