NBA Coaching Carousel: Hiring Forecasts for All Five Open Positions, Including Nurse Replacing Doc for 76ers

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By Webdesk



The NBA coaching carousel is usually a pretty tame affair. A few teams at the bottom of the standings shook out first-time failure for the new hot assistant. Perhaps a contender makes a change after years of sputtering. But typically the best coaches stay in place and the overall coaching landscape remains largely unchanged.

But the all-in era of building NBA rosters has finally reached a peak in terms of coaching. Only one team can actually win the championship, and the highly leveraged teams don’t suddenly need a scapegoat. Therefore, three of the past four coaches who have won championships (Nick Nurse, Mike Budenholzer and Frank Vogel) are suddenly available. So is the 2008 champion, Doc Rivers. His former assistant, 2016 champion Ty Lue, has received a lot of attention in the rumor mill. Ime Udoka, finalist last season, has already landed in Houston.

Suddenly some of the best courts in basketball are available, and they all have multiple champions to choose from. So how is the coaching carousel going to shake out? Here are our predictions for the five current openings.

Early reporting suggests that Philadelphia is planning to go big game hunting with its rent. It is logical. If the 76ers plan to keep James Harden, they won’t have time to bring in a new coach. They want a proven winner, and Nurse clearly fits the bill with the available coaches.

Nurse made a name for herself in the coaching world as the head coach of the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, winning the second of his two G-League championships there. Who are the Vipers a partner of? The Houston Missiles. Who controlled the Rockets? Daryl Morey. The Rockets used to use the Vipers as a kind of strategy lab, and Nurse, one of the most creative coaches in basketball, was more than happy to participate in their experiments. The Vipers grabbed 145 more 3-pointers than any other G-League team during the 2012-13 season en route to a 35-15 record and a championship.

The 76ers hired Rivers before hiring Morey in 2020. While Morey has employed old-school coaches in the past and has publicly emphasized the intangible elements of coaching, it’s worth noting that his last coaching hire, Mike D’Antoni, was one who shared his philosophy on the field. Nurse is cut from the same cloth, but with a much stronger defensive record than D’Antoni. Expect Philadelphia to pursue Nurse aggressively.

The Bucks already have championship infrastructure. No coach will make major changes to the way they play unless the roster changes significantly between now and opening night. What the Bucks are looking for is someone who can make a few minor tweaks: bring a different energy into the building and tweak their halffield attack with the players they already have in house.

Williams designed a deadly pick-and-roll attack in Phoenix. The Bucks know that all too well. It almost beat them in the 2021 final. He’s a largely beloved figure in the league and among players (Deandre Ayton notwithstanding), so he’d be instantly credible joining an out-and-out winner. He’s just the kind of coach this Bucks team needs.

That’s right, the 2021 finalists essentially switch coaches in this scenario. Ironically, they both need the things the other team did well. While Milwaukee needed a half-court designer, the Suns need an umbrella structure. Phoenix took 7.3 more mid-range shots per game in the postseason than any other team. They need a coach who can come in and emphasize high-quality shots while building a high floor defense plan to take advantage of their limited depth.

That’s Mike Budenholzer down to the last detail. His Bucks have almost always been among the front runners in 3-pointers and rim shots, while scaring off those same looks with their drop-coverage defense. That’s the kind of defense the Suns will have to play next season given the amount of resources they’ve spent on Kevin Durant. They can’t expect to add the kind of staff needed to make consistent changes, so a low-risk plan that only needs reliable edge protection (which Ayton can provide if he stays on the team) is preferable. Durant and Booker can take care of shooting themselves in the late game. The Suns need a coach who can keep games close until then. Budenholzer is perfectly suited for that role.

The Raptors attempted to enlist Budenholzer in 2018. They fell just short, as Budenholzer opted for the Bucks. That miss paid off though, as Nick Nurse won a championship in his first season. The Raptors will likely reconsider Budenholzer, but given the superior rosters he could choose from, they’ll likely be second on that front again.

Toronto has considered a number of creative alternatives to the market’s traditional candidates. For example, they interviewed ESPN analyst JJ Redick and the Spanish national coach Sergio Scariolo. But their latest hire worked out so well that the same path must appeal to the Raptors a bit. Just as Nurse had emerged as the future head coach of Dwayne Casey’s staff, Griffin has become a popular head coaching candidate under Nurse. Griffin is highly regarded by players and is now a veteran of five different coaching staffs. He has earned the chance to run his own franchise.

The lottery was a letdown for Detroit on several levels. They didn’t just lose Victor Wembanyama by sliding from No. 1 to No. 5. They may also have lost their chance to hire the best coaches on the market. For example, Monty Williams was an obvious candidate in Detroit. Working with Oklahoma City general manager Troy Weaver, he has a track record of turning a young lottery team into a quick winner. But without Wembanyama, the Pistons just don’t have a roster attractive enough to influence a coach of his caliber.

That leaves them with their three original finalists: Bucks assistant Charles Lee, Pelicans assistant Jarron Collins, and former UConn coach Kevin Ollie. Any of the three would be a viable choice here, but Ollie seems to be the front runner at the moment. He checks a number of boxes for Detroit. Like Williams, he overlapped with Weaver in Oklahoma City. He won a college-level championship with UConn, but he has focused on player development in his role as Overtime Elite coach for the past two seasons. The Pistons have taken their time, but right now Ollie seems to have a small lead.





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