Now that we are in the heat of battle NBA playoffs, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will make daily picks during the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Final. All rules courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Recommended game | Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers
If you discount the 2020 bubble due to Ben Simmons’ injury, the Philadelphia 76ers have now played 1,502 postseason minutes with Joel Embiid on the floor. They won those minutes with 371 points. However, they have played 948 postseason minutes without him in that time. They lost those minutes by a total of 159 points. Paul Reed has moved forward and become a solid backup centre, but asking him to play starting minutes is just not realistic. Miami won the first two games of last season’s second round between the Heat and the 76ers due to Embiid’s injury. It would be irresponsible to pick Philadelphia without knowing if Embiid is playing. The choice: Celtics -10
The last five games of Boston’s first round against the Hawks averaged 242.2 points. Yes, Atlanta’s pace had quite a bit to do with that, but it should be noted that Philadelphia’s pace increases by about two possessions per game when Embiid is on the bench. They’re not exactly the Showtime Lakers, but they can hit the turbo button if necessary, and Boston’s score will force their hand. The choice: over 213.5
Speed has been Boston’s biggest weakness all season. It wasn’t just stars like Donovan Mitchell who set Boston’s defenses on fire. Immanuel Quickley dropped 38 to the Celtics in March, and several players of similar stature, both literally and figuratively, gave Boston bouts this season. Well, Tyrese Maxey is one of the fastest guards in the NBA, and with Joel Embiid probably out for Game 1, the 76ers will need him to increase his scoring volume. Expect a big Game 1 performance from Philadelphia’s rising guard. The choice: Tyrese Maxey over 24.5 points
Recommended game | Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
The Suns and Nuggets combined for 232 points in Game 1, despite only making 27 combined free throws. Phoenix alone has averaged 23.2 per game in the first round against the Clippers, and while their 3-point volume has been an issue for three years now, we can still generally expect them to hit more than seven in a game will get. However, the defensive problems Phoenix had when defending Nikola Jokic-Jamal Murray’s pick and roll will remain. Expect the points to keep rolling in here. The choice: more than 227
Devin Booker had a huge run against the Clippers, largely because Los Angeles switched against him. They had the staff to do this effectively against him in theory, but in practice he simply beat any defender the Clippers threw at him. Denver was more aggressive. They blitzed Booker into pick-and-roll to force the ball out of his hands. There are certainly ways to beat the blitz, but it’s rarely about scoring a lot of points. Expect Booker to be more of a distributor and less of a scorer in Game 2. The choice: booker under 29.5 points