For the first time in NBA history, a No. 7 (Lakers) and 8 (Heat) seed are in the conference finals. You might be tempted to call these developments a fluke. They are not. They are an illustration of what has become an extremely fair NBA landscape. In sports, we like to say “anyone can win”, but that’s rarely true. At this point in the NBA, it’s true.
The 2023 title race was wide open at the start of the playoffs. and it remains wide open now that we are down to the final four.
If you’re looking for the betting favorite, it’s the Celtics at +105, followed by the Nuggets (+240), Lakers (+300) and the Heat, coming in at +1600, via Caesars Sportsbook. If you ask me, that’s a pretty great value for Miami, which could reasonably win the whole thing. I don’t think they will. In fact, I choose them to lose to Boston in the ECF. But it could happen. Something can happen.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at our staff’s picks for the two conference finals matchups, which kick off Tuesday with the Lakers in Denver. (All predictions were made before the series began.)
Nuggets vs. Lakers picks
Reiter’s Pick: Nuggets in 5. There’s no time like the present to go all in to correct a mistake. And the Nuggets have shown me and the people around the NBA how great they are. Nikola Jokic is, of course, a talent of the whole world, but this is a complete basketball team that compliments Joker’s immense talents. They made it easy for the Phoenix Suns and there’s no reason to think they can’t do the same against the Lakers. LA’s run has been remarkable, of course – but LeBron’s age and minutes, AD’s fragility and unreliability, and reliance on so many overachieving role-players overtake them against a legitimate No. 1 seed.
Quinn’s pick: Nuggets in 6. Denver has been by far the best team of the postseason. The Lakers have been rocking, reaching huge highs and disturbing lows that often come down to their inconsistent three-point shooting and how much energy LeBron James can expend at any given time. They are incredibly vulnerable to dirty trouble in this matchup. Just as Anthony Davis played the last time the Lakers and Nuggets met in the playoffs, Dwight Howard spent large chunks of that series guarding Nikola Jokic. The Lakers have no such secondary option. If Davis ever has to sit, Jokic Wenyen gets to destroy Gabriel. It’s been a remarkable effort for the Lakers, but the Nuggets have been the class of the West all season and they should enter this series as a favorite.
Ward-Henninger’s Choice: Nuggets in 7. I greatly underestimated the Lakers before watching them methodically wipe out the Warriors, but the Nuggets are a much better team with an unstoppable MVP playing the best basketball of his career. Denver should have success getting Anthony Davis out defensively, opening the back door and driving to the track. Offensively, the Lakers should be much more successful than they were in the previous round, but the issue of LeBron James’ durability, given his foot injury and age, is pretty much the only thing that has me leaning towards the Nuggets with home court advantage.
Botkin’s pick: Nuggets in 6. Nikola Jokic is the best player in the league. He’ll guarantee Denver the whole series of good shots, and the only way that kind of consistent, high-quality offense won’t result in a win is if the defense can’t hold it at all. Did you see the Nuggets defend? They more than hold up. I think LA’s flight ends here.
Herbert’s choice: Nuggets in 6. Los Angeles might find a lineup that could ruin the Nuggets’ fine offense, but it would probably be hard to score. And if the Lakers prioritize distance, then it’s hard to imagine them getting enough stops. Unless Anthony Davis makes countless jumpers, I don’t see a realistic path to an upset.
Kaskey-Blomain’s pick: Lakers in 7. I’ve learned not to bet against LeBron James and I’m not going to start now. The fact that the Lakers are in this position even after fully adjusting the roster at the trade deadline is impressive, and the team seems to be getting more and more comfortable as a unit with each passing game. Anthony Davis has been inconsistent this postseason, but when he was good, he was Real well, and if he can channel that level of play for the majority of games, the Lakers should have the advantage.
Wimbish’s Choice: Nuggets in 5. The Nuggets have been the most consistent team in the postseason and have proven time and time again that they can adapt and react after a loss. The Lakers had an impressive run against the defending champions, but Denver has more depth to give the LA defense a hard time.
Maloney’s Pick: Nuggets in 6. Nikola Jokic plays at an incredible level and makes the Nuggets hum along with the best offense in the playoffs yet. It won’t be so easy for them against a Lakers defense that was the best on that side of the ball in the postseason, but Jokic is so dominant that every time he touches the ball he essentially makes sure that he looks good. Add to that the Nuggets’ serious home field advantage and a defense that’s better than you might realize, and they’ve got what it takes to win the West.
Celtics vs Heat picks
Reiter’s pick: Celtics in 7. It’s deja vu again, and again this becomes a gritty, physical, defensive battle. Several factors will narrow the talent gap here: Boston’s propensity for listless play and Miami’s razor-sharp focus. Erik Spoelstra’s coaching superiority and experience over the impressive but still learning Joe Mazulla. Jimmy Butler’s basketball superhero turn as Jimmy Buckets in the playoffs. But at the end of the day, Jayson Tatum is the best player in the series, the Celtics are too deep and talented and defeat a worthy but lesser foe.
Quinn’s choice: Celtics in 7. We saw this series a year ago and I’m not just talking about the names and uniforms. Boston went into the third round feeling like it had beaten the dragon in the second. As the Celtics proved against Atlanta, they have a greater capacity for bullshit than any other team in the playoff field. There will be a few matches littered with shoddy turnovers. There will be a few games dominated by Jimmy Butler. Boston should be big favorites here, but if the Celtics can’t make it easy on themselves against the Hawks, they won’t be able to shake off the Heat either.
Ward-Henninger’s pick: Celtics in 7. Miami is going to make Boston’s life hell, but the Celtics have proven that, when locked up, they might just be the best team in the NBA. Joe Mazzulla should stay with the double-sized lineup that will wreak havoc on the offensive glass against a small Heat team, with a roving Robert Williams there to shake things up for Miami’s offense. Boston also has plenty of good defenders to throw to Jimmy Butler and the ability to switch up all the dribbling handoffs and off-ball action that Heat generates 3-pointers. It’s hard to trust Boston, but Games 6 and 7 against Philadelphia may have shaken them up.
Botkins pick: Celtics in 6. From a matchup standpoint, Boston’s double bigs intrigue me the most in this series. With Robert Williams wandering around, Jimmy Butler may find life harder in the paint, and I think Miami’s 3-point shooting looks more like it did in the regular season against all of Boston’s length and versatility on the fringes. I don’t know who is the best player in this series, Butler or Tatum, but after that it’s the Cetlics who clearly have more talent. Maybe I’m just a talent snob and dismiss Heat Culture and Eric Spoelstra’s coaching too easily, but I think Boston wins this series relatively convincingly.
Herbert’s choice: Celtics in 6. Boston knows who to attack offensively in this matchup, and the distance is Wow better than what the Heat just saw in the second round. The question is whether or not the Celtics can remain as disciplined as they need to be against a Miami defense that will do anything to throw them off balance. I’m pretty optimistic about that, and I’m afraid the Heat’s offense won’t look the same without a clear weak link to hunt.
Kaskey-Blomain’s pick: Celtics in 6. The Heat has had an impressive run this postseason, but it ends here against a more talented Celtics team. The Celtics defeated the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals last season and the outcome will be the same this time around. Boston has a deeper roster and they match up well with Miami. Jimmy Butler will likely lead the Heat to a win, or two in the series, but they don’t have enough firepower to make it to the Finals.
Wimbish’s choice: Celtics in 6. The Celtics finally started to look like a championship team in Game 7, and Jayson Tatum showed why he was an MVP contender early in the season with his 51-point performance. It’s hard to pick against Jimmy Butler and the Heat, but they don’t really match the Celtics and the lack of Tyler Herro will really cause problems for Miami in this series.
Maloney’s pick: Celtics in 5. The Heat have proven time and time again that they are more than the sum of their parts, but toughness, determination and confidence won’t get you very far. They have a real talent and depth deficit in this series, especially on the offensive side of the ball. It’s hard to see how they can keep up with the Celtics team who have one of the best offenses in the league and the last run showed they can be devastating defensively as well. The Celtics can also take extra confidence from beating a better version of this Heat team last season.