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The Denver Nuggets are aiming for a spot in the 2023 Western Conference Finals on Thursday. Denver leads the Phoenix Suns by a 3–2 margin in their Western Conference semifinal run. The Nuggets won Game 5 at home on Tuesday by 16 points, and Game 6 will take place at the Footprint Center in Phoenix. Deandre Ayton (rib) is listed as questionable for the Suns, with Chris Paul (groin) remaining out.
Tipoff is in Phoenix at 10 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Phoenix as the 3-point favorite, while the over/under is 226 in the latest Nuggets vs. Sun’s odds. Before you Suns vs. Nuggets picks, be sure to check out NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine projection model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has generated more than $10,000 in winnings for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four seasons. The model entered the semifinals of the 2023 NBA playoffs this season with a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks, netting more than $2,800. Anyone who follows it has seen huge returns.
Now the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Suns and his picks and NBA playoff predictions captured. You can now go to SportsLine to see the model choices. Now, here are several NBA bets and trends for Suns vs. nuggets:
- nuggets vs. Suns scattered: Suns -3
- nuggets vs. Suns over/under: 226 points
- nuggets vs. Suns moneyline: Suns -155, Nuggets +130
- DEN: The Nuggets are 20-25 against the spread in road games
- PHX: The Suns are 25-20-1 against the spread in home games
- nuggets vs. Suns picks: See picks on SportsLine
Recommended game | Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets
Why the Nuggets can cover
Denver has the best overall profile of any team in the 2023 NBA playoffs. After clinching the No. 1 seed with great regular season play, the Nuggets are 7-3 in the postseason with a best +6.8 net score in the league in those matches. Much of that can be traced to a dynamic offense that generates more than 1.17 points per possession in playoff games, but the Nuggets have also performed quite well on defense.
Denver allows only 111.1 points per 100 possessions in playoff games and was elite on the defensive glass, with 75.9% of available rebounds. The Nuggets have always been great at 3-point defense, with 34.4% shooting at opponents during the regular season, and they’ve followed that up with 33.4% 3-point shooting allowed in the playoffs and only 31 .9% for Phoenix in the series. With that defensive resistance coupled with elite offensive stats from both the regular season and the playoffs, Denver is a tough team to beat. See which team to choose here.
Why the suns can cover
Phoenix is very concerned, but the Suns are led by two undisputed superstars in Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. The pairing leads Phoenix to a scintillating 117.6 offensive rating in playoff action, and the Suns lead the 2023 NBA playoffs with 49.8% shots from the field and 18.7 quick break points per game. Booker has been arguably the NBA’s best postseason player, leading the league with 35.9 points per game. He shoots 60.1% from the field and 51.7% from 3-point range in playoff action, as well as engaging teammates with 7.1 assists per game. That comes after a regular season in which he averaged 27.8 points per game on 60.1% real shooting, and Booker is joined by Durant in his elite production.
A former MVP and future Hall of Fame selection, Durant averages 29.6 points, 9.1 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game in the playoffs after arriving in Phoenix midway through the season. Durant was even more productive against Denver, averaging 30.8 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, while also providing the Suns with quality defensive activity. See which team to choose here.
How Nuggets vs. Suns picks
SportsLine’s model leans towards the point total, with four players expected to score more than 21 points. The model also says that one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the model choices at SportsLine.
So who wins Nuggets vs. suns? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of the simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Suns spread you need to jump on Thursday, all of the model that’s 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
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