Two notable prospects were promoted to the majors last week. First, the Baltimore Orioles brought forward right-hander Grayson Rodriguez for his big league-debut, which he made against the Texas Rangers on Wednesday. Later in the week, the New York Mets recalled catcher Francisco Álvarez after veteran backstop Omar Narváez suffered a calf injury.
When combined, these moves mean that five of CBS Sports’ top 10 prospects, including each of the top three, are now working at the highest level of the game. Allow us to summarize for convenience using a handy dandy list:
- No. 1: Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles
- No. 2: Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks
- No. 3: Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets
- No. 6: Jordan Walker, OF, Cardinals
- No. 7: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Orioles
There are two natural follow-up questions worth asking: 1) Who is the top candidate remaining in the minors, and 2) Which top prospect will be next to make the leap into the majors? Here’s our attempt to answer both questions.
Who is number 1?
Please note that players retain their potential eligibility until they have completed a certain number of at bats, innings, or days of service. In other words, the best chance is probably in a big league roster. We said we would answer who is the best candidate still in the minors, so let’s get to the point.
If you take our preseason roster as gospel, there are two contenders for the title: Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio and Nationals outfielder James Wood. You can’t go wrong either way as both have high ceilings. If we had to choose one or the other — and that’s the point of this exercise, isn’t it? — we would go with Chourio for now. Chourio is younger than Wood and he has already conquered High-A, where Wood opened the season.
Granted, not everyone will share that view. Some reviewers who have spoken to CBS Sports have expressed concern about Chourio’s aggressive approach — he walked in just over 7% of his at bats last season — and how it will affect his output going forward. In addition, at least one source nominated Wood as the best candidate in the sport over the winter – and that was with Henderson, Carroll and the others remaining in the game.
In addition to those two, the other three top-10 candidates remaining in the minors are Red Sox shortstop Marcelo Mayer, Marlins right winger Eury Pérez and Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday. Holliday in particular impressed this spring, looking much more well-groomed than a 19-year-old should during an extended stay in the big league-camp. He can end the year as the best prospect in the game.
Who’s next?
It depends on how you define “top prospect.” If it means “someone who is in the top 10,” then Chourio is tied with Pérez for being the furthest by starting his season with a Double-A assignment. (For reference, Wood and Mayer are in High-A, while Holliday is in Low-A.)
Chourio’s path to the majors is more complicated than it seems. Yes, the Brewers need to stay competitive, which incentivizes them to field the best possible lineup. The catch is they have a plethora of young outfielders. Garrett Mitchell and Joey Wiemer are already on the big league roster and former first-round pick Sal Frelick is waiting to make his debut. The Brewers could keep Chourio in the minors all year for extra spice, arguing that he needs to improve on his aforementioned approach before moving forward.
Should that work out, Pérez is likely the next best candidate to hit the shores of the majors this season. For those who don’t know him, he’s a great right-hander with quality equipment and a flair for throwing shots. The Marlins are currently without Johnny Cueto and have gotten some mixed performances from other parts of their rotation. As such, it wouldn’t be too surprising if they call up Pérez for the summer.
But what if we expand our parameters — is there someone from, say, the top 25 who could walk through the door as quickly as possible?
Phillies right-hander Andrew Painter and Giants left-hander Kyle Harrison would have been on our shortlist. Unfortunately, Painter is out with a sprained elbow and Harrison endured two short and rough performances in Triple-A. That leaves us with three other realistic candidates: Twins infielder Brooks Lee (#19), Rangers outfielder Evan Carter (#24), and Mets infielder Brett Baty (#25).
Of those three, Baty stands out as the most logical. He is mainly stationed in Triple-A. He also already made his big league-debut and played in 11 games last season before sustaining a thumb-injury. He recently suffered a thumb injury that took him out for a few days, but he was back in the line-up on Sunday and has already performed quite well this year.
If Baty stays healthy – and if veteran Eduardo Escobar continues to fight – then it seems only a matter of time before he returns to the majors, à la Álvarez.