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Good luck finding an NFL fan base on their favorite team right now. When I predicted records for every NFL teamanything other than 17-0 for literally every franchise was met with nothing less than scorn and derision. The Brinson Model™️ aims to please!
A three-toed sloth could count on one foot the number of winning seasons the Browns have had since returning to Cleveland in 1999. Still, Browns fans are apoplectic when you suggest that 7-10 could be on the table.
Last year around this time my good friend Jason La Canfora identified five teams he believed were in the worst shape and facing the toughest ride in 2022. He pretty much succeeded: Chicago and Houston had the top two picks in the draft, while Carolina and Atlanta were “involved” in an ugly NFC South race before they made the top -10 selections (Carolina would be traded for No. 1 overall) and Washington, well, they worked their way into another impressive Snyder-esque season.
Now it’s my turn to find the five teams lined up for the roughest ride in 2023. This year was much, MUCH harder: I’m personally good at what the Falcons do and three of JLC’s five teams from last year – Carolina, Houston and Indy — ended up drafting a quarterback with a top-five pick. Unless you really hate a prospect’s prospects, you should be optimistic about decent rosters that add young quarterback talent to the top of the draft.
Ultimately, this list will likely end up being a mix of teams that will struggle in 2023, and teams that have long-term questions about the overall direction of the franchise. The Washington Commanders will automatically be added to this list if Dan Snyder still owns the team in Week 1, but if he actually sells I can’t possibly put them in the wrong direction.
1. Arizona Cardinals
I’m not going to lie and suggest that I start alphabetically here: the Cardinals profile as through far the worst team in football for 2023 and it’s not particularly close. Arizona has a freshman GM and a freshman head coach, both of whom made some interesting missteps early on. Monti Ossenfort self-reported that he had tampered with Jonathan Gannon, leading to the hiring process, essentially costing his team a top-100 pick. Gannon declined to meet the media after Arizona’s first draft day and also told reporters in Arizona everyone wanted him fired because the Eagles didn’t blitz enough. It may have been a lie. For a team that could seriously struggle to compete this year, it’s not an ideal way to start things off with the press and fans.
Quarterback could be a mitigating factor here, but Kyler Murray is recovering from a torn cruciate ligament he suffered late in the season. It would be a pretty big surprise if he was ready to roll in Week 1. And then there’s the question of whether the Cardinals want to him to be ready. Arizona has its own choice for the first round and Houston’s in 2024 — factor in a new regime and Caleb Williams/Drake Maye are definitely in the game for the desert birds.
Oh and there’s the whole annoying thing about former staff VP Terry McDonough accuses owner Michael Bidwell of “gross misconduct, including deceit, discrimination and harassment.
Arizona currently owns its own level in this ranking.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucs’ placement here is not an indictment of the organization’s long-term health, but a snapshot of where Tampa stands today. The Bucs won a Super Bowl in 2020 after Tom Brady’s bold takeover — not to mention the rest of the roster was nicely built by GM Jason Licht — and made the playoffs for the past two years, even amid of a coaching change from Bruce Arians to Todd Bowles.
But with Brady retiring this off-season, the bill came for Tampa’s immediate and possibly long-term future. Baker Mayfield is in town on a one-year contract and Bowles’ warmth isn’t being talked about enough. Arians won the Super Bowl; a disastrous season for the longtime defensive coordinator could certainly lead to Tampa changing head coaches the next offseason (or before).
There’s still a lot going for this roster, especially on the defensive end, and you won’t hear anyone complaining about Tampa’s pass catchers either. But the offense wasn’t the same without Arians and now without Brady pulling the trigger, it’s impossible not to worry about how 2023 turns out for this team.
3. Tennessee Titans
Fully prepared to look like an IDIOT when Mike Vrabel wins his division and takes the No. 1 seed in the AFC in a few months. But 2023 is shaping up to be a potentially tough ride for the Titans as they move from Ryan Tannehill – in the final year of his contract – to Will Levis, whom they drafted with a second-round pick in the off-season. Levis’ status doesn’t guarantee him future franchise material (see: Malik Willis last year for Tennessee), but he does feel like someone Vrabel bets his future on, unlike now-ousted GM Jon Robinson.
The problem for Tennessee fans isn’t so much that the team will be “terrible” or one of the worst teams in the league, but there’s a vulnerability in the way the Titans seem to be built. The offensive line isn’t as good as it was when Derrick Henry was kicking off 2000 yard seasons. Tannehill could very well go 17 games and play them well, but it’s very possible that he will ride pines at some point in the season so Tennessee can see what they’ve got in the rookie. Rough spots are to be expected if that is the case.
Offensively, it’s just hard to see the Titans score a ton of points every week. Defensively they are better than people think. It’s hard to win 16-13 games — it’s just the fragile nature of football when you let the lines get so fine.
Henry is also in the final year of his contract. Maybe he and Tanny are making a big effort to break the bank, but the Titans – as we’ve known them for the past several years – are changing their identities during the 2023 season, which could make things a little bumpy along the way.
4. New England Patriots
WHAT COULD GO WRONG?? The greatest dynasty in pro sports history as down in the dumps as it’s been for the past 25 years with Bill Belichick’s back pretty much against the wall so why not go on here expecting I never will burn by the greatest coach in the history of football, professional or not???
The Pats traded Matt Patricia and Joe Judge for Bill O’Brien, an extremely meaningful and obvious upgrade in terms of running the offense. I’m still not sold, but the offense will be above average. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Devante Parker and Tyquan Thornton are not the 1927 Yankees of the receiving corps. Rhamondre Stevenson may be an elite running back, but things get thin after him on the depth chart. Mac Jones still has a lot to prove to many people!
Defensively, no one doubts Belichick, especially when he stole Christian Gonzalez later in the first round. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if the Pats were a lot like the Titans. But that comes back to the fragility of things in the NFL if you want to run and defend the ball in 2023. And it’s magnified for a team like the Pats in a division like the AFC East, where Buffalo runs three years of dominance, the Dolphins are a dangerous contender when their QB is on the field and the Jets just added Aaron Rodgers. I’m optimistic about New England this year, but it’s entirely possible that 2023 will be a long season for Pats fans.
5. Las Vegas Raiders
Let’s take out everyone connected to the Patriots dynasty, why not?!? It felt like the Raiders took a step forward and a step back in the off-season. Adding Jimmy Garoppolo to replace Derek Carr was the perfect metaphor for this team: they made the ultimate lateral move, even though it would benefit the team in the long run due to Jimmy’s fit in Josh McDaniels’ system.
I’m a huge fan of both Jakobi Meyers (essentially a one year contract) and Josh Jacobs (franchise label) but expecting the latter to produce in the same way as last year is a lot to ask, especially with the frustration of another single year deal may be lingering. Even if the offense explodes, the Raiders could easily be the fourth best forward in their own division.
Tyree Wilson is a very attractive signing as a pass-rusher, but will he see meaningful action this season with Chandler Jones playing the (likely) final year of a questionable contract? It’s hard to find a path where this Raiders defense is substantially better than last season.
The division is just stacked flat. The Broncos should be almost better, the Chargers’ offensive coordinator upgrade should bring immediate benefits, and the Chiefs will remain, well, the Chiefs. Last year, halfway through his first season, people were clamoring for McDaniel’s head. What happens when the division is loaded and the Raiders struggle this year? Tom Brady probably doesn’t need to fire McDaniels in his first year as a Raiders minority owner, but the idea is super clunky to think about.
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