The 2023 NBA Finals features an unlikely match-up between the No. 1 in the Western Conference, the Denver Nuggets, and the No. 8 in the Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat. There are all kinds of storylines, both on and off the field; one of the most interesting, from an Xs and Os perspective, is how the Nuggets will fare against the Heat’s famous zone defense.
For most of NBA history, zone defense was not allowed, and even now it is not a primary strategy for most teams. Of course, the Heat aren’t like most teams, and they zone out more than anyone else this season by a wide margin.
In the regular season, they spent 21 percent of their defensive possessions in zone; the Portland Trail Blazers came in second with 14.9 percent and no one else was even in the double digits. Same story in the playoffs, where the Heat played 15 percent of the time zone; no other team played it more than 7.3 percent.
While in the zone, the Heat only allows 0.906 points per possession, which would be the best overall defense in the postseason. Their height, athleticism and connectivity cause problems, as does simply changing the look they give the defense. This was especially evident against the Celtics, where their ability to seamlessly slip into a zone regularly disrupted the Celtics’ rhythm and was instrumental in their upset seven-game victory.
How much and when remains to be seen, but we know the Heat will play a lot of zone in the Finals. The big question is can the Nuggets crack it? If they can, they will probably win the series. If not, and the Heat can effectively use it to resolve the Nuggets’ powerful attack, this series could be closer than people expect.
The Nuggets are confident that they will win that tactical battle.
“As you mentioned, we’ve seen zone all year,” Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters Wednesday during the Finals media day. “I think we have one of the better zone efficiencies on the offensive side. At this point in the Playoffs, I think our offensive rating is perhaps the best for a team that has ever been in the Finals. We are prepared for it .”
The evidence suggests they are right.
In the regular season, they placed second in the league in zone violation, scoring 1,156 points per possession, and in the playoffs, that figure has risen to a stunning 1,385 points per possession. However, it’s worth noting that they’ve only seen 231 total zone defense possessions all season because they split it so easily.
How?
Of course it all starts with Nikola Jokic. He is the engine of this team and a historically good attacking force. Able to score efficiently inside and out, he is arguably the best passing big man of all time and won’t get sped up or flustered no matter what the defense has in store for him.
The center of the floor is the weak spot in the 2-3 zone of the Heat game, and while you can only get so much out of regular season games, check out how easy it is for Jokic to look good when he sets up. shop there. His vision and understanding of the game make him special, of course, but his size is also key to breaking the zone. With a length of 2 meters, he is not bothered by the smaller Heat defenders and can easily throw over them.
During the playoffs, the Nuggets made 31.4 three-pointers per game, ranking them 13th out of 16 teams. But if you give them open, they will make them; they shoot 38.6 percent in the postseason, second only to the Heat. And with Jokic, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray all shooting at least 39.8 percent, they have multiple options for hurting you from the outside.
Jokic is a natural playmaker, but if you don’t crash into him when he gets the ball in the middle of the floor, he likes to find his own attack. During the playoffs, he shoots 57.3 percent within 5 yards. This piece isn’t against the Heat, but it illustrates the point.
Jokic, to no surprise, downplayed his skill when asked if he was watching the zone, claiming he didn’t know what would happen and praising the Heat’s effort on that side of the ball.
“We’ve seen the zone,” said Jokic. “We definitely haven’t seen zones like this because they switch zones and they really screw the game in their favor. We just have to be focused and solid at what we do because that’s why they’re great.” , that’s why they win, that’s why they’re in the final. They ruin the game in their own way, and they do it very well.
“I don’t know how it will affect me. We’ll see tomorrow. Maybe 10 losses, maybe 10 points. We’ll see.”
Jokic is humble, but we won’t see him have 10 sales. Instead, what we’ll see is the Nuggets getting open shots on a regular basis as the Heat employs that strategy with him on the floor. His passing and scoring talent is a big reason why, but so is his composure and leadership.
“When we see the zone, a lot of teams will freak out when they see the zone instead of just playing the game,” Malone said. “Getting the ball in the middle of the zone, using dribble penetration to collapse the zone. If we call a play, they’re in the zone, just keep playing. This isn’t college. Bam Adebayo can’t be in the paint. He’s got to cleanse himself at some point.”
Jokic will keep the Nuggets on track against the zone, and that should see the Nuggets win the series.