Two of baseball’s most promising rookie outfielders will share a field tonight, as Corbin Carroll and the Arizona Diamondbacks visit St. Louis for three games against Jordan Walker and the Cardinals. Carroll and Walker entered the spring ranked by CBS Sports as the Nos. 2 and 6 prospects, making them the top contenders for the National League Rookie of the Year Award (they’re the top two favorites for the award coming in Monday, according to Caesar’s Sportsbook).
The season may be young, but with such a fun game on deck, we thought it would be a good time to take a look at how Carroll and Walker have performed during the first few weeks of their rookie seasons, and whether or not we not be encouraged or discouraged by their play thus far.
Corbin Carroll, OR, Diamondbacks
What we wrote in the spring: “Injuries and the COVID-19 pandemic limited Carroll to 142 minor league games prior to his Arizona debut last August. The lack of reps didn’t stop him from hitting .260/.330/.500 ( 133 OPS+ ) with four home runs and two steals in 32 games. Carroll continued to show swing-and-miss tendencies within the zone, in the 27th percentile for that matter. That mistake won’t sink him (Paul Goldschmidt and Gunnar Henderson were only two recognizable names around him on the leaderboard), but it could result in a higher success rate than he anticipated in the past. Still, Carroll is a well-rounded, top-speed midfielder who should provide secondary value oodles.”
How he has performed so far: Carroll came in on Monday, batting .288/.300/.542 with four home runs and six stolen bases (on six tries). He didn’t take a free kick in his first 60 at bats, a surprising development from someone whose minor league career ran over 15%. For whatever reason, whether it’s his order placement (he batted fifth most often) or internal pressure to justify his $111 million extension, instead he easily expanded his zone. His pursuit rate was in the 13th percentile coming in on Sunday.
To Carroll’s credit, he hit the ball hard and with optimized angles at better-than-average rates. He even connected for a 432-foot home run against Clayton Kershaw, confirming he has more juice than his stature indicates. Speaking of dealing damage against the Dodgers, five of his six steals came against Los Angeles, including three off Noah Syndergaard. (Poor Will Smith didn’t even attempt a throw on three of those five Carroll steals.)
Carroll has also leveraged his speed in the outfield, where he’s already seen action in all three outfield spots (albeit with the most left). He could play credibly in center field any day, but the Diamondbacks are determined to give Alek Thomas another extended trial at center. Early returns on Thomas were not encouraging, so that dynamic could change in the coming weeks if the D-Backs become uninspired.
Encouraged or discouraged? Encouraged. Carroll can’t do without a walk all season. The rest of his game was pretty much advertised, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if his best game is ahead of him.
Jordan Walker, OR, Cardinals
What we wrote in the spring: “Walker has tremendous strength, resulting in the kind of raw power that could make him a prototypical mid-range slugger. To fully access that pop, scouts expect he will have to keep learning how to lift the ball more often – last season more than 45 percent of his batted balls were grounders (a point in his favor is that most reviewers believe it’s easier to train launch angle than runout speed.) There was always a chance Walker would outgrow that the hot corner, and the Cardinals have already cross-trained him in the outfield. Whatever position Walker plays, his bat will be the main draw.”
How he has performed so far: Walker gained national attention for starting his career with a 12-game hitting streak, tying an age-old record for players 20 or younger. He started Monday hitting .267/.302/.400 with two home runs and a stolen base. Walker’s introduction to the majors, like Carroll’s, hasn’t brought many walks. He has drawn one in his first 63 trips to the plate, while striking out 17 all along. He’s been hyper-aggressive thus far, swinging on over 72% of the pitches he’s seen in the zone, as well as over 37% of the pitches outside the strike zone.
Walker’s bat is (and was expected to be) a work-in-progress as he learns to lift the ball more often. Sure enough, he’s shown pure top-level power, with a maximum exit speed (114 mph) that puts him in the 97th percentile in that size (roughly like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ronald Acuña Jr.). At the same time, it has an ISO of 0.133 well below average due to a ground ball percentage of 53.5%. What’s more is that his two hardest hit balls this season had a negative launch angle.
Defensively, Walker only played right field this season after being drafted and (mostly) developed as a third baseman. He is more athletic than his size and strength indicate, but at times he looked like someone with about 50 games of professional experience. In the end, whatever Walker gives (or takes) on defense won’t matter all that much – not when everything clicks offensively and he threatens yearly for the home run leader.
Encouraged or discouraged? Encouraged. Walker will need to sharpen his approach as the year progresses, and we suspect he’ll have stretches where he only hits loud grounds. Still, it’s promising that he’s holding his own so far as a 20-year-old.