Why the D-Backs’ Losing Streak Ends Tonight | Rays and Marlins will struggle to score

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By Webdesk

This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ PM Newsletter, the ultimate daily guide to sports betting. You can sign up here every weekday afternoon to get it delivered to your inbox.

All times East | All odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Cardinals at Diamondbacks, 9:40 pm | Watch live: MLB.tv

Last Chances:

Arizona Diamondbacks -125

  • The pick: Diamondbacks (-125)
  • Main trend: The Diamondbacks have won six of Merrill Kelly’s last eight starts.

It’s rare to see me support a team that has lost five straight games, but in this place the Diamondbacks are too talented not to get through this rough patch, and I think they will on Tuesday.

Arizona gets back starting pitcher Merrill Kelly as he returns from a calf injury to start Tuesday. Prior to the injury, Kelly pitched extremely well, posting a 9–4 record to go along with a 3.22 ERA on the season. The right-hander won three of his last five starts before getting injured and the Diamondbacks won six of his last eight appearances.

While the wins haven’t come in lately, Arizona has put runs on the board for the most part. The Diamondbacks have averaged 4.4 runs per game, while scoring at least five runs in three of their last five games. When you talk about a lineup that includes sluggers like Ketel Marte, Christian Walker and Corbin Carroll, I trust the Diamondbacks will continue to hit the ball. After all, the Diamondbacks rank sixth in all baseball in runs scored, while ranking in the top 10 in just about every offensive category.

On the other hand, Cardinals starter Steven Matz has been downright brutal. Matz has a 1-7 record and a 4.67 ERA on the year leading up to Tuesday and also owns a 5.49 ERA on the road. I’m counting on the Diamondbacks being able to strike early and often against the struggling Cardinals starting pitcher.

💰 More MLB picks

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Marlins at Rays, 6:40pm | Watch live: MLB.tv

Last Chances:

Under 7.5

  • The choice: less than 7.5 (-115)
  • Main trend: The under has batted in four of the Rays’ last five games.

The Marlins and Rays have been two of the most inconsistent teams in the bigs since coming back from the All-Star break earlier this month. That’s why I feel very comfortable riding the under in this place.

Listen, if you’ve been consistently reading this newsletter, then you know I’m not the biggest fan of unders. However, these two teams have struggled to score points in recent weeks. The Marlins have won just one of their first nine games after the All-Star break, and in that stretch the Miami averages just 3.1 points per game and has scored three or fewer points in five of them. Even in their first win on Sunday against the Rockies, the Marlins scored just three runs to come away with a 3-2, 10-inning win.

Meanwhile, the Rays, one of baseball’s top teams throughout the first half of the 2023 season, have lost seven of their past eight games. And in those eight games, Tampa Bay only averages three points per game and has scored three or fewer points in six of those games.

These are just two offenses that I refuse to trust at this point.

Reds at Brewers, 8:10pm | Watch live: MLB.tv

  • The Pick: Andrew Abbott over 5.5 strikeouts (-137)
  • Main trend: Abbott has struck out at least six in five of his last six starts.

Andrew Abbott has a great rookie campaign and has given the Reds rotation a huge boost. The 24-year-old has thrived in the strikeout department since coming to The Show, so we’re going to capitalize on that success here.

Since making his MLB debut in early June, Abbott has struck out at least six in six of his nine starts. In addition, the left-handed Reds has at least six strikeouts in five of his last six starts, including six strikeouts in his most recent appearance against the Giants. Abbott has also logged at least six innings in seven of his nine starts, so he should have plenty of chances to register punchouts against Milwaukee. Additionally, the Brewers offense has knocked out fifth place in the majors this season, so expect Abbott to clear that number.

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