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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the With the First Pick newsletter. Today we’re dispelling popular 2023 NFL Draft notions. You still don’t understand what that means exactly. But you will. I promise.
As for the newsletter itself, we’ve rebranded the Pick Six Newsletter until the end of April. And I, CBS Sports NFL Draft Analyst Chris Trapasso, will be with you every step of the way. The sole purpose of this daily newsletter is to track everything that’s happening in the NFL and spin it into a draft angle.
Before I start, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends and that one uncle who always sends you fake draft links to sign up for the With the First Pick newsletter. Click here and share this link with them.
Today’s NFL Mock Draft 🔮: Quentin Johnston to Lions?!
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Long-time CBS Sports contributor Jared Dubin dove headfirst into the mock-draft industry with a great mock that features a combination of prospect and team I don’t think I’ve seen all draft season – Quentin Johnston heads north to Detroit and already joins a team with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams on offense by Jared Goff. I like it. I like it a lot. Yes, that was a nod to “Dumb and Dumber” in 2023.
Of course, the Lions need to keep supplying the defense with talent, but let’s think about this: The front office hit Aidan Hutchinson, Kerby Joseph, Malcolm Rodriguez and James Houston in last year’s draft and signed a bunch of solid defensive veterans in free agency . And I always say, in design, when in doubt, go offense. Detroit takes Jared’s spot at No. 18 in the overall standings.
A few other notable selections:
5. Seahawks from Seattle – Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
15. Pittsburgh Steelers – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
23. Minnesota Vikings – Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
26. Dallas Cowboys – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
28. Cincinnati Bengal – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
31. Kansas City Leaders – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Buyer Beware Prospects: Many top DLs are high-risk propositions 😳
CBS Sports NFL Draft analyst Josh Edwards carefully selected his “Buyer Beware” prospects for the 2023 NFL Draft. Of course, this piece will be controversial, but remember that not all early selections end up anchored in Canton. We will look back at many first-round choices and realize that they should have been chosen much later than they actually were.
Here’s what Edwards wrote about former Georgia game avenger Jalen Carter:
“There were murmurs of maturity concerns with Carter before his legal affairs. Those were amplified by the fact that he put on weight and couldn’t finish his workout at Georgia’s Pro Day. Carter made some bad choices, but it had to be stressful to see it all through in the national eye. Interviews will be important as teams sit down with him to learn whether this has been an error of judgment or a potential issue in the future.”
Watch out for prospects to see Edwards’ other buyer, click here.
The best fit for mid-range QB prospects 🏈
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Hey, mid round QBs are people too, you know?! And the likes of Houston’s Clayton Tune, UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson, TCU’s Max Duggan, Fresno State’s Jake Haener, Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell, and Georgia’s Stetson Bennett will likely hear their names at some point during the draft. It won’t be Thursday night. For most it is on Saturday.
Staffer Garrett Podell took care of it detailed descriptions of all those prospects, along with some possible/sensible landing sites on day 2 or day 3 of the design.
But don’t forget that 65 quarterbacks started a game in 2022 — 65! If last year’s case study didn’t emphasize the importance of the backup quarterback spot, nothing will. Heck, Cooper Rush, who was actually out of draft in 2017, was an integral part of the Cowboys making the playoffs.
Seven unconventional observations about this draft class 👀
I’m sticking with the originally accidental naysayer theme of today’s newsletter with a piece I recently wrote that describes observations I’ve made about this concept class of 2023 that seem to run counter to what has become accepted conventional wisdom during this pre-design process.
Among the unconventional shots: My firm belief is that Iowa LB Jack Campbell has to be a stone cold lead pipe to go in the first round. Here’s part of what I wrote about Campbell:
“I really have no idea why he’s not widely regarded as a regular choice on the first lap. OK, so he didn’t run in the 4.50 seconds on the combine. Maybe that’s it. Guess what – Lavonte David ran 4, 65. Fred Warner ran 4:64. Demario Davis, 4:61. Germaine Pratt, 4:58. Campbell is fast enough and he plays faster because of his refined instincts. He’s the only classic off-ball linebacker — so I’m not counting Drew Sanders — worth a first round.
I also have different thoughts about Clemson’s Myles Murphy and TCU’s Quentin Johnston. Plus, I wonder why on earth we’re considering Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker as the first pick.
News & Notes 📝
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- How Much Do QB Contracts Actually Rise? In the wake of Jalen Hurts’ renewal, our staffer Cody Benjamin researched QB contracts to indicate exactly how expensive they are in connection with the ever-increasing salary ceiling. You will be smarter after reading this.
- CJ Stroud no longer favorite to become number 2 in the general classification?! Ohio State passerby is now jumped by Kentucky’s Will Levis as the betting favorite for that landing spot. WHAT IS HAPPENING?!?!
- What the Hurts expansion means for Jackson, Burrow and Herbert. From yesterday, but important to take with you today. Bryan DeArdo wrote about the ripple effect Hurts’ massive expansion will have on the Bengals and Joe Burrow, the Chargers and Justin Herbert and of course the Ravens and Lamar Jackson.
- Damar Hamlin is fully medically cleared and trained with Bills. Buffalo’s GM Brandon Beane made the great news at his pre-draft press conference on Tuesday.
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