The New York Mets came in on Wednesday with a 20-23 record, good for fourth place in the National League East. The Mets, whose payroll is estimated at $346 million to be by far the largest in Major League Baseball, had a bad May and started a 5-11 stretch, outscoring them by 27 points. There’s more than enough daylight left for the Mets to correct course, but so far it’s fair to call them a disappointment.
As of Wednesday morning, the Mets appear poised to shake things up, at least within reason. Infield prospect Mark Vientos was reportedly on his way to joining the big league club. It’s unclear how the Mets will create a spot for him on the active roster, though it shouldn’t come as a surprise if they get rid of an underperforming veteran. Vientos, fresh from stabbing the ball on a consistent basis in Triple-A, should boost. Be that as it may, he’s only one player; the Mets need more than just him to do well.
So what else needs to change to get the Mets back in the race? Below, CBS Sports has identified three dynamics worth paying attention to.
1. Better attack
We noted in the introduction that the Mets could get offensive help from Vientos if he manages to make a successful transfer to the majors. They could certainly use that.
The Mets came in on Wednesday ranked 21st in runs scored and 20th in home runs. They are also 17th in steals, meaning this is a lineup blessed with neither strength nor speed. They’ve given at least 80 at bats to 10 different players, and only two of them (Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo) have reached a 110 OPS+. Everyone else is just above average or well below – the latter being their reserves for most days: Tommy Pham, Eduardo Escobar and Luis Guillorme.
Clearly, the Mets need to hit better. Specifically, they need to get more production from behind the plate (easier typed than done) and in the outfield corners, where Starling Marte (64 OPS+) and Mark Canha (87 OPS+) struggled. Check out their percentile position in a few key categories:
|
Mar |
20th percentile |
22nd percentile |
34th percentile |
|
reed |
31st percentile |
34th percentile |
30th percentile |
That’s not ideal for a corner outfielder, let alone two in their mid-thirties who don’t score well defensively, according to ball-tracking stats. We’re less than two months into the season, so you don’t want to sound the bell too early – sometimes players just get off to a slow start – but if both continue to struggle between now and the deadline, the Mets have to call how confident they are in one or both return to finish the trajectory.
2. Better health
The Mets rebuilt their rotation over the winter by executing a free-agent line swap. Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker were replaced by Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and José Quintana. It is illustrative of the Mets’ availability troubles thus far to note that the expected five starting Mets — the aforementioned three, plus veteran holdovers Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco — have combined to win just 19 of New York’s first 43 games. start, or about 44% of their matches. Not how they set it up.
Now, to be fair, Scherzer missed time because he was suspended for grip enhancers. But Verlander only recently rejoined the rotation, and both Carrasco and Quintana remain on the injured list. (Carrasco returns to the rotation this weekend; Quintana is not expected back for the All-Star Game.) Unsurprisingly, the Mets were one of the most battered teams this season based on counts.
According to Spotrac data, The Mets are one of two clubs to have lost more than 500 days through injury. (That the other club is the Yankees suggests there may be something present in the New York City atmosphere that causes injuries.) The “who” is just as important as the “how much”: The Mets have largely lost out on Verlander and Carrasco seated, starting backstop Omar Narváez, and closer Edwin Díaz (out for the season after a knee injury during the World Baseball Classic in March).
You could argue that the Mets should have known they were trying to defy fate when they constructed a rotation with one pitcher under 34, but it doesn’t work that way. Pitchers of all ages can (and often do) get injured. That’s life. Look no further than the Tampa Bay Rays, who are currently without four starting pitchers: Tyler Glasnow, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs and Shane Baz. Only Springs is over 30.
The thing about health is that it’s hard to predict. In some cases, you can assume that things will balance out. But it’s possible that the Mets will get more snakebite than the average club, in which case they’ll need to find a way to bolster their depth.
3. More ‘happiness’
Speaking of things you’d expect to even out, the Mets are 6-7 so far in games decided by a single run. To put that in perspective, consider that the Miami Marlins are 13-1 in such games; the Atlanta Braves are 8-4; and the Philadelphia Phillies are 6-4. In other words, the Mets have suffered just two fewer losses in one-point games than the three teams stationed before them in the NL East have done combined.
There are a few factors that can help explain extreme performance in this category — the qualities of one’s bullpen and manager being the most obvious — but those instances tend to be rare. It’s fair to say that the Mets would be in a better place with a healthy Díaz because… well, duh. However, the New York bullpen has not been a sieve. They rank 14th in ERA as a unit and have been responsible for the second fewest “meltdowns” in the majors. (“Meltdowns” added a FanGraphs stat based on Chance of Winning.)
To take it one step further, take a look at how the Mets’ highest leveraged relievers have performed to date. (Note that “leverage index” is a fancy-pants way of defining the importance of a situation based on its score and base-out status; anything above “1.0” is considered a high-pressure situation.)
We may be missing something, but for now, we insist that the Mets (and the teams chasing them in the East) will play closer to .500 ball in one-point forward games. If that happens, the Mets will naturally gain ground.